We are nearing the end of 2011, and most of the people I talk with say "GOOD"! If you had asked me four years ago how long the recession was going to last, I would have responded probably 6 - 18 months. Historically that's been the case, and many of those we didn't even realize a recession was going on until after it was over and the economists told us about it. This one is different, it seems to be the never ending recession. For our industry, 2007 started getting soft, 2008 was terrible, then 2009 improved a tad, and 2010 improved a very little bit more, then 2011 went right back down to equal to or worse than 2008.

The only difference in this recession to the others I've been through is the politics. Politicians and the media have terrified all of us, taken stupid actions with the stimulus and bailouts, and really screwed things up. What is going to happen next? Will things ever improve? How many times have you heard the term "double dip" in the last few years, something I'd never heard before concerning the economy. Well, I believe the recession is over, and we will see slow steady growth until the election unless something disastrous happens, massive terrorist attack kind of thing. After the election I believe it can go either way depending on who prevails. I don't think I need to embellish that thought.

The thing I have the most confidence in is that people still need highly energy efficient vinyl replacement windows for their homes and business. The market has not been scratched and the demand has been building while this slow down scared people into not making the investments in their homes they need to make. Because of that I believe we will see a pretty good 2012, and a very much better 2013 in spite of the rhetoric. I guess even four plus years of recession can't stop an eternal optimist.

"U.S. economy grew at 2.5 percent rate in third quarter"

Wow! The media is finally saying something positive, without putting the usual negative spin on it. Add that to the European debt crisis resolution announced this morning, and it looks like the economy is rebounding in spite of the media, the pundits and the politicians. Markets are up, consumers are buying, and if the third quarter was at 2.5 growth, I think the fourth quarter will be even stronger. Perhaps the media will now back off some its constant negative barrage.

I still think 2012 is going to be a challenging year, at least for the building products industry, mainly because of the unknown situation with the election and all the negative talk both sides are doing. Sadly, it will only get worse as we approach the election this time next year. I do think the consumer is getting plain tired of being afraid, and will start spending on the things that are important to them, things to enhance their lifestyle, their homes and their families. So even with all the political rhetoric, we are going to see a better year in 2012 than we've had in 2011. Looking back that may not be saying much, 2011 has been abysmal, but at least it is a positive trend.

The first half of 2011 is coming to an end, and none too soon for those of us engaged in building products. The second half looks to be much better for our industry and the economy in general. Unemployment is expected to decline from here – finally – slowly, but steadily. Gas prices are forecasted to continue to come down, as always, not as fast as they shot up, but back into a more reasonable range as the summer progresses. These two facts should make consumers feel better about where they are in life and hopefully be ready to spend some money again.

For us in building products, we hope at least some of that increase in spending will go to fixing up homes. There isn’t much that makes a homeowner feel better than improving their home. It’s an investment in the future. Whether they plan to stay in the home, or hope to sell it when prices start to rebound, improving a home offers many benefits. You and your family are happier while you remain living there, and if the plan is to sell, making “good” improvements will add value to it for the future.

Things like highly energy efficient replacement windows make your home more attractive, more comfortable, and add significant value to it. If you’ve been putting off replacing those ugly drafty old windows, how about doing it now? Remember, things are getting better even if the politicians don’t want you to think so. Over 90% of people have jobs and aren’t losing them. Gas prices are coming down, and there are some great values and sales going on with windows and doors for your home. Check the internet for a good, reputable home improvement dealer in your area and check out their credentials, then call them for a free in home estimate – you won't regret it – it’s time to take this economy back into your own hands and make that decision.

As usual, as we approach the end of another year, you think back on all that happened this year, and look forward to what you expect to happen in the coming year. For the replacement window industry, 2010 was a milestone of a year. There was unquestionably more government involvement in our industry than ever before. Since the replacement window industry began in the mid sixties, when I started in the industry, I can say that with total confidence.

It was a very difficult year, but ending on a very strong note, with a big part of the strong finish due to the expiring Energy Tax Credit 25c legislation. Interestingly, the replacement window industry actually started into this recession late in 2006 well before most businesses saw any problems at all. Business got steadily more challenging through all of 2008, and has been very slowly recovering from that bottom.

Next year should be much better for everyone, but especially for the home improvement and replacement window industry. The economy is recovering. The talk now is that retail sales this Christmas season, if not record breaking, will at least be excellent and the best we’ve seen for many years. This fact alone says average consumers are again spending money.

Now apply that information to housing. Prices have bottomed but the market hasn’t loosened up at all. Houses just are not selling at normal rates so most people are staying put, and many will likely decide to improve what they have rather than try to buy something new. The best part of this is highly efficient replacement windows are a great investment. They make you more comfortable in your home. They save you money on your energy bills that translates into the country saving energy, huge quantities of energy.

High quality energy efficient replacement windows improve the appearance of your home and have been proven to be one of the best home improvement projects to recoup your investment in a short period of time. That really means you are paying for replacement windows whether or not you buy them with your higher energy bills. Reduce your bills, save energy, improve the value of your home, feel more comfortable in your home year round, make your home more beautiful, and help the country significantly reduce the need for foreign energy – WOW – a win – win – win – win – win – win – win investment.

As far as what 2011 will be like, any year that starts out January first as 1111, has to be a winner.