I heard part of an interview with Warren Buffet this morning on Bloomberg television. He said that housing, residential new construction, is the key to getting the economy back on track. I've believed that for a long time but it's the first time I've heard someone of Mr. Buffet's stature say it. He said it is improving, but of all the seventy plus businesses that Berkshire owns, the only ones still struggling are the ones tied to housing and housing starts in some way. He said the rest of the economy is firing on all cylinders and has fully recovered, it's only housing related business that are struggling. His opinion was that once housing starts get above one million per year, that the economy will get back to full recovery and unemployment will quickly drop to about 7 %. He said he sees that happening in the next two years because we are producing more new households than new homes. He said it has been improving consistently since 2009 but still has a way to go.

Being in the building products industry I see this message in two ways, good and bad. It means, if he is correct, that there is an end in sight to this never ending recession. But the negative part is it could be another two years of very slow growth for our industry. I guess the real positive message I got from this is that it is absolutely the right time to buy an existing home now. Prices of homes across the country are at historical lows and mortgage rates are also at all time lows. Credit has eased up to where most people with jobs can get a good mortgage at a good rate. I believe this will be the start of the rebound. People finally able to buy a different home - existing new or used, to be able to move to where the jobs are without the fear of not being able to sell their old home. Once existing homes start turning well, then new construction will naturally start to rebound too.

The time to look into a new home for you and your family is now when everyone is still cautious and worried. Once the realization sinks in that homes are starting to sell well you will be too late. Then credit could get tighter again and prices will naturally start raising. I think it's pretty clear we've made it to the bottom of the housing cycle and the trend from here will be improvement in the industry. So for all of you that have been waiting before making a decision, you better start putting your ducks in order and start looking for that new home, if you wait much longer you will have missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

Everywhere you turn there is yelling, belittling, chaos, berating, threats of Armageddon - and that's all coming from our high ranking elected officials.

ENOUGH already! I would be very pleased if the politicians would get out of the headlines, stop being talking heads and let the rest of us get back about our business. If Washington would just get the H--- out of the way, maybe the economy would start rebounding in spite of them. It can't with all this jabbering and fear mongering going on.

Being in the replacement window business for about 50 years now I know there is demand for our products, I know they do what they promise to do - save energy - increase your home's comfort - reduce the required maintenance - and ad value and beauty to your home.

All in all a really great investment with lots of benefits for you and your family and the country as a whole. The problem is as long as there is all this yammering, no one has the confidence to take action and do the things they want to do for their families and their homes.

I just hope this doesn't go on until the election next year.

An interesting report out of Harvard University recently indicates that the remodeling industry should see better times presently. That’s more good news for the country, the home remodeling industry and for consumers. With factors such as rising prices of existing houses and more homeowners staying in their homes instead of moving, it makes sense that people will need and want to make improvements to their homes. Another major factor, very possibly spurred by the recent energy tax credit programs, appears to be increased consumer interest in environmental and energy-saying improvements. The payback and money-saving benefits of improvements such as replacing old windows with ENERGY STAR qualified windows cannot to be overlooked.

For more on the report, see the January 13 article on Qualified Remodeler’s web site -- http://www.qualifiedremodeler.com/web/online/Industry-News/US-Remodeling-Industry-Poised-for-Growth/38$2410

Forecasting where business is going seems to be getting harder and harder to do. Trying to foresee what unemployment will do, where GDP may go to, and what kind of inflation numbers we need to be concerned with seem to be almost impossible to forecast, at least the experts I see have done a pretty abysmal job. In a magazine article in Smart Money Magazine I think I may have found some things that could give us a clue as to where our economy, and our future is going.

They came up with some little watched statistical “barometers” that may be part of the answer to improve on forecasting the future. For Jobs, they suggest “JOLTS”. They say the jobs report shows how many people are not working, while the Jolts report shows how many people are leaving or starting a new job. As an economy strengthens, more people will be starting a new job than leaving an old one, vice versa in a declining economic environment. The other one for jobs is the number of hours worked, being much more valuable than the numbers of people hired. The Employment Situation Summary is where you find the hours information, but if you want to dig deeper, there is more detailed information by industry at www.bls.gov.

They go on to say that disposable personal income is a better wage growth number as a forecasting tool. The data is what people earn less tax and can be found at www.bea.gov. The pundits say it showed the growth in restaurant sales this past year and if it continues to grow at the same rate, big-ticket items should be on the horizon.

To track bank lending better than the quarterly bank officer survey, try the Release H.8 available on the Fed’s website www.Federalreserve.gov. It shows the trends of how much banks are lending for commercial loans on line 10.

With the ascension of the internet, I’m starting to understand just how much information is out there, and maybe even where to find some of it. Now the trick will be to manipulate all this available data into real, useable information to try to do a better job as to where we are going as a nation, an industry, and then an individual company. Good luck and good researching.